Is Now the Time to Buy Stocks or a Home? How Should I Invest Now?

It might appear as if stocks could not go much lower, but that would fly in the face of historic economic crashes. So the right question to ask is if our country has ever faced such dire economic and geo-politcal threats as we are now seeing and are escalating rapidly?

Until just earlier this year the Fed's QE to Infinity policy had been in place for near a decade. The Fed has raised the Fed Funds Rate a few times since the beginning of the year and is stating they have plans to continue to raise rates above 4% or until the CPI is reduced to near 2%. Coming off the last two CPI reports (9.1%, 8.5%) we have a ways to go with current Fed Funds Rate at 2.25% to 2.5% as set in July. The next Fed Meeting is set for September 22 and it is widely expected to see another minimum raise of the Fed Funds Rate of 50-75 basis points. In 2020 and 2021 we saw unprecedented stimulus of $2 trillion for Americans, plus $4 trillion in loans for businesses. This plus in 2020-21 the Fed added to it's balance sheet before pivoting in Q1-2022 to begin paying it down.

The higher the Fed Funds Rate the greater the pressure on the economy, the stock and housing markets as well that have buoyed our economy for the past decade. Raising the Fed Funds Rate is necessary to combat the highest inflation America has seen since the early 1980's. Adding all this up points to a continued bear market for stocks and real estate which just began to finally cool off in the past couple of months as mortgage rates nearly doubled from near 3% to 6% from January to June this year. There have been several warning signs the economy is not doing well. The GDP ran negative and declined in Q1 and Q2 this year. This means by definition we are in a recession, that is until the Fed Government changed the definition just this past July. The 2-Year and 10-Year Yield Curves have been inverted now for several weeks. This has been a near 100% indicator that a recession is active or coming in next 6-12 months. Yet with the Yield Curve inverting for weeks at a time and inverting earlier this year too, I'm not sure we have EVER seen such take place. Does this mean we are in for a stock market and economic crash akin to the Great Depression of 1929-1933? I believe so. There are more contributing factors to my believing we are on the edge of an economic cliff. While we saw the stock market drop near 20% from highs this past May/June, the markets rebounded almost back up to their peaks. Michael Burry is famous for his massive Short positions and calls taken as he predicted the housing market was ready to collapse in 2007. And now once again Michael Burry is predicted a major fall in stock and housing markets in the very near future. Let us not forget the most turbulent time each year for the stock market is the Fall months. We have already seen in the past year the start of Bear Market, yet we've seen rebounds back up to within 5% of all-time highs from a year ago. This past past week we've seen a 5%+ rebound (September 7-9) in the stock market. This was even with the Fed Chief Powell doubling down this week that he was going to continue to raise the Fed Funds Rate on September 21-22 and that he will continue to raise rates until inflation hits target of 2% CPI. So though it appears the market does not believe Powell will stay the course as investors this past week bought up stocks that were in route toward May/June lows, come September 22 I believe we will see another rate hike of 75 basis points and the stock market will resume it's downward trend. How far down this Fall/Winter? I would not put a 20-30% correction out of the realm of possibility. This October should surface great chaos in every way in America with Mid-Terms coming on November 8. Do keep an eye on results of Mid-Term elections. If the Republicans take back the House and Senate it is likely we will see a strong rebound in stocks. Though we may also see a surge in staged and funded rioting in the streets too which may tamper a strong and sustained market rebound.

And in tandem with America's turbulence in October/November/December we may see geo-political activity with China possibly invading Taiwan, Russia stepping up it's military expansion, Germany, France, the UK having radical changes take place and the tensions between Iran, Turkey and Russia with Israel rise dramatically. As well we are likely to see game-changing economic activity related to energy and the stock and real estate markets. Russia has teamed up with China and several other nations to forge new economic, energy and currency to challenge the Petrodollar. I could and may write an entire article on this and CBDC's, but just know that great economic change is taking place this Fall and into and through 2023 and 2024.

We must not ignore reality but embrace it to move forward well in navigating this reality.

Reality is the stock market may be far from bottoming. The stock market crash in 1929 that kicked off the Great Depression, did not bottom until 1932. The stock market crash from 1929 to 1932 dropped by nearly 90%. The economy did not really fully recover in the 1930’s prior to the World War 2 beginning in December of 1941 for America.

What the Greatest Generation did exemplify and had no choice but to embrace during the 1930’s was hard work. America went to work building bridges and highways nationwide. And then came the World War 2 with the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. This woke up and rallied together America in one common cause. We’d already been working hard together to survive the great economic crash and now the world would see how prepared America was to save the free world from tyranny and evil gaining rule over the whole world.

Before the war we were still recovering from the Great Depression. After the war we were the greatest country on Earth in every way. Because the Greatest Generation and those prior generations that sacrificed, learned to fight modern warfare in World War 1 as well, we survived and triumphed in WW2. We not only exist because of their sacrifices but have prospered since in abundance unlike any other nation. We ought to be thankful and learn from their great losses and their great victories.

And though the Greatest Generation and previous generations had just come out of a decade of hard economic conditions when the war hit, now 30% of Americans were required to pay income taxes vs. just 3% before the war. And most of the money to fund the war was supplied by Americans buying U.S. War Bonds. Unlike today, where those earning under $100,000 - $250,000 a year are likely going to receive stimulus checks, tax holidays, paid leave, perhaps student loan forgiveness and cheap loans to keep businesses big and small afloat. In all 10+ trillion dollars being paid out to Americans, banks, businesses big and small businesses has served as artificial economic stimulus that worked like steroids to drive up consumer spending and real estate home prices and double-digit inflation we have seen. Yes the CPI states we peaked at 9.1% a couple of months ago, but how the CPI tracks inflation was changed I believe in 1980. If we still used the old CPI our inflation would be closer to 15-20%.

And now by mandate, no Congressional approval, the person installed into office of the US Presidency is forgiving $10,000 in student loans with no strings attached. First off, I thought only Congress had authority over purse strings? We are talking about hundreds of millions to over a trillion dollars being added to our National Debt which is now approaching $31 Trillion Dollars! And to think that just 20 years ago our National Debt was just above $6 Trillion dollars! This leaves America's ability to pay off this debt as a near impossibility and rests it upon our children and grandchildren should America continue to exist as free nation. So the bottom line is we may be facing two years of economic and political hard times before we reach the bottom of stock and real estate markets and the geopolitcal chaos as well. We may never see a full recovery. We may even see the end of a Free and Independently run Constitutional Republic. We may see Civil/Revolutionary Wars 2.0. All this in the next 2 years. So bottom line is I'd be very careful and caution against investing in the stock market right now until we see massive political changes that support Freedom, true Free Market Capitalism and America being led by leaders that actually stand firmly in support of our Constitution and our rights therein as granted by God, the God of the Bible. So, do I think we will see a U or V shaped recovery of the stock market or economy if the Republicans take back the House and Senate. There may be a brief rise, but with the Dems/RINOs, the Left Media and the WEF/UN Globalists and Communists determined to destroy America and gain control over her, we may not see a V or U-Shaped recovery in the economy or stock or housing markets until 2024 and a dominating victory to place True Freedom First and America First Republicans in office along with President Trump or Ron DeSantis winning the Presidency. Keep in mind that when President Trump won in 2016 we saw the stock market soar for the next 3-years. The economy was in great shape. We could see a very strong rebound to all-time stock and real estate value highs by end of 2025 or 2026. This of course is predicated upon there being relative world peace, no Black Swans and we are not in midst of WW3 with America's mainland even having seen attacks upon it killing 10's to hundreds of thousands or even millions. This is a very real possibility to take place prior to 2025 or even after.

So, in light of all this sobering reality what can and should we be doing? Where should we be investing our money? Beyond our 401K's of which could be converted to Gold IRA's, your personal savings might be best invested to protect your family's future safety and survival. I'm not saying put all your extra resources into prepping, but a good portion. Should you keep some cash invested into the stock market? Perhaps into Value Stocks, Energy stocks such as coal and natural gas and oil stocks. Perhaps invest some into Utility Stocks that pay sound dividends. Perhaps some into gold and silver ETF's? Perhaps some into stocks that produce food? I'm just identifying some markets where scarcity and geopolitcal and economic chaos may produce rise in the prices of these commodities.

In the Summer of 2019 there were several economic warning signs that pointed to an imminent stock market crash and coming recession. In August of 2019 the yield curve inverted which most of the time this has happened it has pointed to a recession taking place in the next 6-18 months. We saw down-trending manufacturing reports for several months in a row, the trade war with China, the Fed reverse course on interest rates, and last but not least, we saw the Federal Reserve fund $500 billion in overnight Repo loans to banks to keep liquidity up between September and December, 2019. And in the 4th quarter of 2018 we saw the stock market drop near 20% before the Fed came in and promised to begin lowering the Fed Funds Rate.

All this was well BEFORE the Coronavirus reared it’s ugly head in 2020 the stock market was already showing signs of weakness. And beyond that, the stock market is cyclical. The stock market had been on an 11-year bull market run up over 4X from it’s lows in March of 2009. We were overdue for a crash of the market. Many smart investors and economists thought it would happen just after the 2020 US elections. That is prior to the Coronavirus and the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Our government's and the government's of the world's reaction to the Coronavirus proved to the be the pin that popped the bubble and a Black Swan not only of stock markets and economies, but of our way of life.

And to put in a final word of caution. Just because stocks and real estate have rebounded in the past within a few years to a decade, does not mean they will do so again. Japan's stock and housing markets and economy still have yet to fully recover to anywhere near their peaks from the late 80's and early 90's. The amount of volatility and speed of the stock market crash in 2020 could easily see another repeat with another Black Swan event or events. Fed QE and fiscal stimulus in 2020-21 were staggering in size and unprecedented in American history or global history. So is it possible 10, 20, 30 years from now stock and real estate markets may have yet to recover in America? Yes.

And will the dollar remain the Global World Currency? Though it's at all-time highs right now this could end. If the Globalists and Communists partner and have their way, the dollar could crash by 50-70% off it's highs right now. This could happen if we are attacked economically and militarily in the next two years. And with the Central Banksters wanting to issue their own Central Bank Digital Currencies in the next year or two, this will only place greater pressure on the value of the dollar and the Free Markets.

Now, I've painted a bleak picture for the next 2 years but for those walking in Freedom and Knowledge and blessed by God, there is hope and prosperity and peace in our hearts for the future. I firmly believe God will protect and provide for my family and for all those trusting in Him. There is a way to reap growth in you bank account and maintain Freedom in your life for your family in the coming months and years. You just must be prepared and praying to God for provision and wisdom and blessings for your family and your friends and neighbors. Now is the time to draw close to Jesus and come to know Him as Savior and Lord if you have yet to do so. Now is the time for Americans to unite under Freedom and God to survive and thrive in the coming months and years of which will be trying times of which our nation may not have seen the likes of before since WW2, The Great Depression or our Civil and Revolutionary wars. We may see much greater military or terrorist attacks upon our land than ever. We may see great divide politically and culturally. We may see the propaganda media continue to deceive 10's of millions of Americans. Such is a time we are in that will forever shape our future and that of our kids and grandkids should the Lord Jesus tarry in His return in the Rapture. We can have hope in His imminent return via Rapture for His True Believers, yet we may have to endure serious persecution and greater trials in coming months and years. I do believe it is very possible we may see a Great Awakening and Great Revival in coming months and years. We may even see a Great Recovery of Freedom and Liberty and Justice once again starting in 2023 and fully blooming in 2024-25.

And is now the time to invest in real estate or to buy a home? No, but there are exceptions to this rule. The mortgage rates are now AVERAGING near 6% and home prices are still near all-time highs. Home prices are beginning to fall in major markets as mortgage rates are going up homes become unaffordable for many people. And even a semi-sophisticated home buyer knows that the real estate market is cyclical, rises and drops 20-100% every 7-10-years. We saw home prices more than double in many markets from 2000 - 2007 and then drop back down by 50%+ in many markets by 2010-2011. So I believe once again America is facing another home price correction as the Fed raises rates to 3% come September 21st and then up to perhaps as high as 4-5% by Q2-2023. We could see 8% average mortgage rates by next April/May in 2023. This will kill demand for new home buyers and home prices will come down by 10-30% by next May/June (will vary by market). Would I buy then? No, but there are exceptions I'll list in a minute. Why buy when mortgage rates are still high and prices are still historically high? Buy low, save high right! I see the home price correction will still have another 12-18 months from Spring of 2023 until home prices bottom out at being down 20-50% from highs this past May/June 2022. Granted in some Red States the home price correction will likely see less of a drop, maybe more like 10-20%. Why? As Freedom seeking citizens move from Blue States like California the demand for homes in states like TX, FL, AZ, ID, SD, Montana, Utah, TN and other states with strong base of Conservative Citizens and governance will reduce the impact on home price correction as though demand may still drop as 7-9% mortgage rates make homes less affordable for much of the population.

Now the Fed may begin to pause on raising Fed Funds Rate by Spring of 2023 as the economy and stock market and housing markets should all see 20-30% drops by then and CPI inflation is reduced below 2% target. By the Fall/Winter of 2024 I see the Fed reducing the Fed Funds Rate down to 2% and to 1% by Spring/Summer of 2024. This may be the ideal time to buy a home, but waiting another year would not be a bad idea either as there could still be great geopolitical activity just form of a Black Swan event taking place just before or after the 2024 elections. If President Trump runs again and wins or DeSantis runs and wins, there should be a BIG TIME BOOM IN THE ECONOMY, STOCK MARKET AND HOUSING MARKETS.

Note of caution here. This October, 2022, from now through election day on November 8, there is also a very high chance of an economic or geopolitical Black Swan event taking place toward the goal by Globalists and Communists wanting to disrupt the Mid-Term elections. I see 10's of millions of Americans have woken up to reality since the 2020 elections and seeing all the evil agendas being pushed forward by the Globalists and Communists working to take down America and take over control of her via the media, CDC, UN, WEF and OUR very own government. So this too is a word of caution. We may see stock market crash this October and then rebound if Republican Party regains control of the House and Senate. Yet we are likely to see FUNDED riots in the streets across America in major Blue cities if this happens. This may send the stock market back down and the Fed Gov may try to impose Martial Law. Now we have a New Congress starting Jan 3, 2023 and they will be prosecuting many for treason or crimes publicly. This too might bring more violent civil unrest and rioting not unlike we saw in the Summer of 2020 in major cities across America. And let's not put past the possibility that a Black Swan of an EMP or 9/11 events times 10 in 10 cities across America could take place in October to try and push off the elections from happening. So all listed above considers no major Black Swan events, but most certainly stepped up protesting and even rioting, burning buildings and looting stores this Fall/Winter and beyond. Nevertheless, America can survive this and rebound and recover by Fall of 2024.

Before I finish here I mentioned exceptions to buying a home now. If you are planning to exit a Blue state and move to a Red Conservative state, now might be a good time. You'll still be overpaying and paying higher mortgage rate for up to 2-4 years until home prices rebound (which home prices should not drop as much in Red states as Blue states) and mortgage rates drop back down to below 4% or 5%. The other exception would be to buy a rental property in a Red state market with strong economy. Many people may lose their homes in the next several months and move from Blue states. This will open up opportunity to buy rental property and see they are rented. Again you may be overpaying and be barely covering mortgage payment and management costs, but you will still be gaining some equity. Come Fall 2024 and Spring/Summer of 2025 I see the housing market making a big jump up. You won't want to miss that so probably best to buy new home or rental property in Fall/Winter of 2023 or 2024 once market has neared bottom and mortgage rates have dropped below 4% or 5%. And lastly an exception might be to buy a 2nd home in the mountains or Red State to flee to in case of massive civil unrest or tyranny from Fed Gov or Blue state governors or mayors.

And here I’m just giving a sample of just my insights. With site membership you’ll gain access to more smart investing insights from myself and many expert investors from which I have learned much from and continue to do so. Join me on my journey of economic enlightenment to gain savvy plans and strategies to save more, earn more and invest more smartly.

As a reminder, I’m not a financial or investment advisor. You should get advice from a registered investment or financial advisor when making your investment decisions. I’m just here giving my perspective on what might take place in the future and how possibly to profit when investing.